Ghetto Finance Tues 1/05/10: How long? A long, long time

Posted on January 5, 2010. Filed under: 2 Finance, 3 Politics | Tags: , , , , |

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/01/krugman-american-economy-will-not.html

How long should recovery be expected to take?

Well, there aren’t many useful historical models. But the example that comes closest to the situation facing the United States today is that of Japan after its late-80s bubble burst, leaving serious debt problems behind. And a maximum-likelihood estimate of how long it will take to recover, based on the Japanese example, is … forever. OK, strictly speaking it’s 18 years, since that’s how long it has been since the Japanese bubble burst, and Japan has never really escaped from its deflationary trap.

Me:  Not encouraging words, especially for you optimists out there, but the truth shall set you free.


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